Friday, September 28, 2007

"Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower" by Zbigniew Brzezinki

The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Communist Regime were historic events. The world captured by the phase, “Cold War”, changed. In 1990, there was only one indisputable world leader, the United States. It was a moment when our leadership could have made a monumental change in how nations interacted. As Bush I so often said, there was a “new world order”. The question Zbigniew Brzezinki asks is: how did each of the three presidents who held office since 1990 succeed in providing the leadership?

Bush I was credited for dealing well with the breakup of the Soviet Union. He, as he said himself, never had “the vision thing”. He never thought through the implications of a “new world order”. There were opportunities lost, e.g., the Middle East in general and the Israel-Palestine conflict, in particular.

Clinton did well in terms of managing or assisting the incorporation of former Soviet client-states into NATO and the EU. He demonstrated leadership in the Balkans. However, he too failed to seize opportunities to make a significant difference, e.g., Israel-Palestine conflict could have been shepherded more successfully. Secondly, he became enamored with the perceived inevitable progress for all nations that the global economy would achieve.

And, then, we have Bush II, admittedly a disaster. For Brzesinki, the major problem was the ideological convictions underlying policy decisions, rather than a realistic appraisal of opportunities that begged for international cooperation. If Bush I and Clinton did not pursue the leadership potential inherent in our position in the world order, Bush II turned the tables: rather than a leader, we became a problem!

Whoever becomes President in 2009 will have a challenge to reverse the current negative situation. The invasion of Iraq has altered the Middle East in ways that are yet to be fully documented. Not only is there instability, but we know that there are vested nations vying for power. How the United States gets back into a multilateral partner with Europe will be a major responsibility of the new president. China will become a power. How we deal with this emerging economic and military power will determine to some extent how successfully China will deal with its neighbors, e.g., Japan, Korea and India.

We have to return to former mechanisms of international diplomacy by utilizing soft power. There was a time when our nation was a symbol of the ideal nation. We have to become a nation that returns to the power that comes from modeling what our Constitution declares.

Fighting the Inevitable!

So much has been written about the problems in Iraq that one becomes jaundiced when seeing still more articles trying to provide some new insight into the mess. Roger Owen’s analysis does shed some additional insight to a commonly referenced problem of the lack of a unified Iraq government. It is hard to note American and Iraqi deaths still occurring when there is no Iraqi who wants an Iraq to exist! No one wants to be an Iraqi!

While our government wants to lull people into thinking that the surge is a success, the following disturbing points are noted:

1. Our military is weakening the centralized government by “arming and financing the Sunni tribes in Anbar Province as local militias”.
2. “National” leaders in government are under the dominion of the various sect leaders. vincial elections in 2005. Essentially, the Coalition Forces supported the local leaders, e.g.., the Shiite militia in Bosra, in the South, and, clearly, the Kurds in the North. And still more frustrating is the lack of unity even within these sects, e.g., Shiite Militias in Bosra fight each other!
3. Since resources, i.e., utilities, are scattered throughout the region, they become dependent on the local warlords who gain more power by their ability to distribute benefits to “their constituents”.

There is no mechanism to build an allegiance to the central government. All of our efforts to give the political process a chance to become effective are doomed to failure. Having said that, what should we do?

Somehow, we have to give the leadership role to some other government or a group of regional powers. We cannot do it. We have to admit failure and ask others to assume leadership with our support, i.e., we will have to support whatever military needs are required in the name of stewardship for the mess we created. The only way that this can happen is our willingness to admit our errors. Why would other nations want to assume any leadership role unless we share our need for help?

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Hard Reality of Escaping from Iraq

For someone who has such a vile reaction to our current President and to his horrendous invasion of Iraq with all the subsequent problems, e.g., destruction of property, killing of innocents, millions of refugees, lack of security, even less services, it has been hard for me to support the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party advocating a rapid withdrawal of forces.

It not only seems totally irresponsible for us to walk away from the disaster we caused, but I admit to fears of the outcome to those still present in Iraq and for the region in general.

Whenever you hear politicians talk about the problem, apart from the few who can see things without shades of color, e.g., Kucinich, it seems as either they are buying into the current vision of the administration or being vague. However, I share the problem.

The National Catholic Reporter (NCR) represents a trusted media source. The paper advocates very liberal positions and yet, it too is very cautious about our next steps in Iraq>

NCR reviews the status of our involvement and the potential problems in leaving precipitously. The paper also advocates regional involvement, a necessity repeated often by this writer.


Bush has not only presented a legacy of national debt, but he will leave us with an enduring problem.

State of National Economy

It is hard not to be attracted to positions you endorse. It is natural. We like to receive confirmation that we are not too far from reality.

Over the last several decades, one aspect of economics that seemed clear to me that it is not good to have a great disparity in the distribution of wealth. Originally, my focus was focused on the discrepancy between the Developed Nations and the Third World. Unless the disparity was bridged, violence would be the ultimate price paid. How could you not empathize with those who saw the signs of wealth elsewhere while you were trying to survive, literally.

More recently, the concern has been the economic discrepancy in our nation. Harold Myerson is only the latest of a series of critics of the gross discrepancy between the rich and others. He (and I) grew up with the positive results of a Middle Class that was sharing the growing wealth of the nation. While racial problems, along with poverty, existed, these problems were seen as problems that would be addressed by weight of the growth of our economy. Justice and fairness were words that meant something. They worked to a great extent, albeit not perfectly.

Myerson, Krugman, et al. are now focusing on the phenomenon of the Middle Class losing its capacity to contribute to further growth. In fact, the Middle Class is eroding.

As in the case of the disparity between the wealth of the Developed Nations and the poverty of the Third World, so now we are faced with the prospect of further erosion of our common good, our common security, and our common ground for hope if we cannot recognize the need to ensure that we have a vibrant Middle Class.

In the midst of all this, we have a national economic problem. We have a horrendous national debt, there is an enormous debt being crunched out by credit borrowers, and now we have the problems with liquidity, resulting from the sub-prime fiasco. David Ignatius shares his fears, fears that seem real to me. The problems associated with the packaging and repackaging of mortgage loans into various forms of security may have been "inventive", but the reduction of risks that were cited as the rationale for such derivatives seems now an example of how smart people can act periously.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

A Day of Campaigning for Obama

For someone my age, one cannot say that it was an ordinary day. It was the first time in my life that I was going to campaign for a presidential candidate in New Hampshire, the first state with a primary election. Houses would be assigned for me to ring door bells and, hopefully, I would identify supporters of my person, Barack Obama. Since the list included only Democrats and Independents, it seemed simple enough.

It turned out to be a horrendous day (maybe explained in total by my age; I may just be too old for this type of activity!).

At any rate, I had to some blood work done prior to my primary care visit (I pleaded unsuccessfully for the lab work without a physical unless the chemistry results were abnormal). I got to the lab at 9:30 am only to find that the operations did not start until 10 am. It would be a small matter, except that I was now very hungry (fasting for the blood work) and I still had to get to Obama’s Headquarters in Manchester, NH by noon.

After completing the lab work, I needed to eat. I was reduced to Dunkin Donuts due to time constraints. I would have eaten virtually anything at this point.

My former work life required my traveling to Manchester relatively often. I never considered it onerous. However, this trip seemed endless! I was old when I started; I was much older when I got there!

Added to the length of the drive was the horrendous set of directions from Google! Even though my younger son thought that this was a sign of growing senility, I am convinced that the directions could have been more clearly delineated. Be that as it may, it took me added time and misery to wind my way through the “Queen City” of New Hampshire.

When I finally found the former warehouse or factory in an off beaten road, I was a little late, measured by what I thought would have been a highly efficient four hours of campaigning. However, it not take much grey matter to figure out that I was a minority of one senior citizen, albeit there was one other person with some grey hair. And, according to the code of these young (mostly college age) men and women, it takes time to get organized. “Take it easy and relax”, I repeat as a mantra while I try to keep focused on our leader’s instructions.

Unable to find a partner (maybe a blessing), I was given two clip boards with a cover sheet to summarize my activities, a map to find the “turf” (usually referred to as a neighborhood), and a list of names of Democrats and Independents with a code sheet to identify their political leanings and concerns. It so happened that I was assigned a town south of Manchester, requiring another 30 minutes in negotiating Google directions! Thankfully, these directions were better or, possibly, the few brain cells operating as designed were transmitting the information on demand.

I find the “turf” and park my car for what I expected to a somewhat interesting set of conversations with a voting public attuned to the intriguing electoral process. New Hampshire was distinguished because of its enlightened electorate. What I found were the following:

a). The majority of calls were unanswered because no one was home. There were two or three calls that represented people who chose not to open the door.
b). Of the approximately 50-60 calls, I found no one who was clearly an Obama supporter. This was somewhat a surprise.
c). There were three committed to voting Republican (one was for Romney, no less).
d). The remaining people were clearly undecided without giving much evidence that they were leaning in any direction.
e). The issues considered important to their decision to identify a candidate to represent their interests included everything but Iraq, possibly because Iraq was self-evidently a problem.

During the canvassing of the “turf”, I noted myself beginning to faint (hypoglycemic since I had so little to eat or drink since the prior night). Can you imagine one of my adult children getting a call from a local hospital, “We found your father unconscious on the street. He seems to be coming around, but you may want to drive him home.” In spite of occasional signs of dysphoria, I plodded on trying to finish my second “turf”.

In spite of my attempt to complete the task, I had to quit in order to drive back another 30 minutes to headquarters. As in my prior attempt to negotiate the streets of Manchester, the journey was convoluted. Without asking for directions again, I probably would still be there.

The day would end eventually. The ride back home was as endless as when I came. However, this time I would stop to visit my new granddaughter, an event which put the rest of the day into a better perspective.

Campaigning may not be for the old people! Or, it could be that this old person has lost it! For sure, it was discouraging to find no one committed to Obama. And to find so many uncommitted makes me wonder what this special electorate who treasures its role as the state with the first primary reads. Thankfully, there are apparently tons of young people who will compensate for those of us who seemed to have passed into another category, labeled “useless”.

Monday, September 17, 2007

Know Obama by Those Around Him!

It has been difficult for Obama to break through the lead of Hillary. While his rhetoric and charisma are frequently identified as positive, it does not seem that his positions on policies are drawing sufficient attention.

While many of us who support him identify with his "new" style of leadership, it would be hard to label him anything but one who attempts to compromise. In this case, it does seem that compromise is bad; somehow, his compromises do not seem to be as poll driven as they reflect the reality of real differences of opinions.

At any rate, it was impressive reading the large number of people who are advising him and, in particular, to note who they are. They are not wild-eyed liberals, but people with acknowledged competency based on academic credentials and experience.

Whether he can overcome Hillary's significant lead or not, Obama remains my man!

Friday, September 14, 2007

A Conservative with Legal Competence and a Conscience

Jack Goldsmith's education at Yale Law School has served him well. He has taught at the Universities of Virginia and Chicago before accepting the position of being head of the Office of Legal Counsel at the Department of Justice. His brief tenure between 2003-2004 when he resigned is a tribute to his character.

In summary, Goldsmith's perspective is that presidential policy decisions should rest on sound legal bases. Who would argue with this?

Apparently, the drive to expand presidential powers in the name of fighting terrorism was overwhelming. Rosen's review of Goldsmith's new book, "Terror Presidency", indicates that the center of his problems was the Office of the Vice-President and his legal counsel, in particular, David Addington.

Goldsmith's objections were based only on the need to secure congressional and/or court's concurrence with the legal positions used to justify policy decisions.

Opinions of the Office of the Legal Counsel apparently provide the Office of the President with immunity when acting on these opinions. It was unusual, but Goldsmith withdrew several opinions and to secure his decision regarding the opinion formulated by his former friend and Deputy Legal Counsel, John Yoo, regarding torture, Goldsmith resigned. The Supreme Court later would support his decision to withdraw the original opinion.

In short, Goldsmith believes that the President could have got all of power he wanted if he went through Congress appropriately. By usurping the power, he ultimately lessened the inherent powers of the presidency.

"Munich": A Film with a Message!

Steven Spielberg is an advocate for Israel. At the same time, he sees the senseless loop of hatred caused by revenge. There is no end with retaliation. As quickly as revenge achieves the death of one, another takes his/her place to retaliate in turn.

"Munich" clearly depicts this senseless cycle. No one wins. In fact, more and more lose.

At the same time, there is an unresolved issue. What do you do when your national existence is at stake? Israel is nation staring at oblivion, if her enemies had their way.

"Munich" only says that revenge will not secure peace.

I suppose Steven Spielberg could have just as easily used tapes of the Iraq invasion to prove the point. With no Al Qaeda present in 2003, our intervention has spawned an entire cadre of Al Qaeda with endless replacements. Prior training in the mountains of Pakistan and Afghanistan are now replaced with real experience in Iraq. The United States has generated more enemies by our perilous intervention to compensate for any we kill.

This type of behavior surely does not make our nation or the world safer.

"Mr. Spielberg, please talk with President Bush!"

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Same Old, Unfortunately!

How hard it is to know that the proverb that "one who does not history is doomed to repeat it", seems to be beyond the grasp of this administration.

Roger Cohen shared a 1925 report regarding the former Ottoman Empire that despite “the good intentions of the statesmen of Iraq, whose political experience is necessarily small, it is to be feared that serious difficulties may arise out of the differences which in some cases exist in regard to political ideas between the Shiites of the South and the Sunnites of the North, the racial differences between Arabs and Kurds, and the necessity of keeping the turbulent tribes under control.”

Nothing has changed. David Brooks zoned in on the hatred between the ethnic groups in Iraq. Thomas Friedman highlighted again the lack of civil institutions. This knowledge was available for those who were considering the invasion into Iraq. The knowledge of the breakup of Yugoslavia with its negative outcomes was available.

Why would our leaders think this intervention would avoid a similar outcome?

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Source of Anger

When the planes destroyed the Twin Towers and devastated the Pentagon, my reaction was: "What have we done to generate such hatred?" It may not have been a common understanding, but the policies and behavior of the Developed World, especially the United States since it is clearly the leader, seemed designed to generate anger among those who were "left out". It seemed clear that the might of the few would ultimately suffer the consequences of unfairness since no nation "deserves" all it can get.

James Carroll, clearly recognized as an outsider for many,articulates more clearly the same point. The United States may want to see itself an innocent in Iraq, as the government whose intentions were pure, but it does not look that way to many. It is hard to justify the invasion in terms of ridding the nation of Sadam when the consequences are so devastating for the very same people. Millions are refugees, thousands and thousands have been killed, the infrastructure is wrecked, services are relatively non-existing.

How should such victims view us, if not as aggressors?

Nora Anne: 10 September 2007


Slipping rather effortlessly into a new world,
A new baby, sharing the same oxygen,
Now the center of a love matrix.

The gift beyond words,
Young parents in awe,
The educated now speechless.

The gift settles into the rhythm of life,
Nourishment and Rest, supported with love.
Nora Anne, a gift treasured as priceless.

The gift, nestled in loving arms,
Evokes words and feelings of gratitude.
Such an undeserved blessing.

May all who hold you,
Always see the gift
In humble silence.

Friday, September 7, 2007

The Problems With Leaving Iraq!

While sharing the need to get our coalition forces out of a lost cause in Iraq, it is easier said than done.

There are all sorts of pitfalls. The bottom line issue is whether the outcome will become so catastrophic that we (and others) will have to return to avoid a major conflagration in the entire Middle East! The world needs a level of stability in the Middle East.

The Economist provides a detailed overview of the issues that need to addressed should a policy be adopted to leave Iraq!

We are responsible for the mess! As Colin Powell indicated, "if you break it, you own it". (I wish that he was much stronger in getting this point across when he had the power to short-circuit the planned initiative).

Religion versus Religious Values

Religion has become a problem for many, including myself. It is disturbing to hear politicians advocate for positions supported by the religious right while distancing themselves from policies that reflect commonly accepted religious values, as evidenced by the Beatitudes.

Joan Chittister continues to be a convincing advocate for the values underlying religion without disowning her identity as a Catholic nun.

Wishing that there were more like her, for the moment, I am grateful that she continues to speak out for the values that will make a difference in how our nation survives.

International Cooperation: A Strategy for Iraq

Sometimes it feels good when someone with more "weight" agrees with you! Since it is clear to many of us that we cannot "win" in Iraq, however such a word could be defined, the only option to enlist the cooperation of other nations.

While Madeline Albright did not reference any need for admitting responsibility for the tragic initiative, she advocates the need to enlist France, Germany and England (as well as Syria, Jordan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia (Iran represents a conundrum).

"A coordinated international effort could help Iraq by patrolling borders, aiding reconstruction, further training its army and police, and strengthening legislative and judicial institutions. It could also send a unified message to Iraq's sectarian leaders that a political power-sharing arrangement that recognizes majority rule and protects minority rights is the only solution and is also attainable."

Our best hope for salvaging a positive outcome, viz., stability, seems to lie with our enlisting the support of other nations.

Begging for help should not be ruled out!

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Family

During last week, our home enjoyed the companionship of our adult children and their spouses and our grandson. It was particularly special to know that each of the young women in our home was pregnant! Our only grandchild will soon become the senior grandchild of four! It was special beyond words.

We know vicariously the great experiences of others who are grandparents. We now have this experience in common.

However, my special joy is observing our adult children experiencing their lives with vitality. Observing their relationships with their spouses and, thus far, the new role of one who has become a parent has made me feel that our roles as parents were “successful”. We always were consciously aware that we were their stewards until they could develop into adults. Our job was to prepare them for whatever opportunities they wanted to seize. To see them as people who you admire for who they are and how they relate with others is awesome.