While one of my sons continued to deny my conceptualization of mortgage derivatives as a Ponzi Scheme, it seems that today the saying about something that looks like a duck and sounds like a duck is a duck is true! But, as in other matters, everything is so complex that our ignorance outweighs our knowledge.
I admit to being excited by what there is to learn from those more knowledgeable about investment banking. All sources of the media are inundating us their knowledge with opinions about what plans to remedy, or at least, establish some limits to the financial disaster affecting Wall Street and other banks.
What is clear is that no one really knows what to do with any confidence that a given plan will be effective. At the moment, I am struck by the importance of the taxpayers' being included in the actual equity of any firm that becomes subject to the terms of the bailout. The plan offered by Paulson does not meet this condition. Contrasted with 80% equity in IGA, his plan would only be profitable to the taxpayers IF someone was able to determine the right price to pay for the currently unmarketable paper.
James Galbraith innumerated eight principles that should be used to evaluate any plan that will be submitted for a congressional vote.
One of my favorite economists, Joseph Stiglitz, wrote a very detailed article explaining why the problems (four) will not be addressed by the plan developed by Paulson, even with the modifications by Congress (thus far). It scares me that someone like Stiglitz would have major problems with the plan that is being circulated by the public media.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Presidential Temperment
Voices are heard that Obama is too "cool", "intellectual", "cerebral" and does not get sufficiently angry and emotional when addressing our national problems. While understandable, Obama's approach seems very "presidential". He is not given to impulsive comments or actions prompted by unexpected crisis. He is steady, thoughtful, analytical, and consistent. He seems perfect for the position of President.
In contrast, McCain enjoys a history of angry outbursts, impulsive decisions, and a very moralistic approach to policies. What he perceives as "bad" must be discarded; "good" must be promoted, independent of other considerations. George Wills' overview is only of many that zero in on McCain's angry, impulsive behavior that is inconsistent with the office of President.
Hopefully, others will note it and vote accordingly.
In contrast, McCain enjoys a history of angry outbursts, impulsive decisions, and a very moralistic approach to policies. What he perceives as "bad" must be discarded; "good" must be promoted, independent of other considerations. George Wills' overview is only of many that zero in on McCain's angry, impulsive behavior that is inconsistent with the office of President.
Hopefully, others will note it and vote accordingly.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Our Foreign Adventures Revisited!
While there is virtually nothing new to add to the past ravings regarding our misadventures into foreign lands (Iraq unnecessarily and Afghanistan unprepared and unsustained). Historical blindness to the ethnic divisions and tribal loyalties, we ventured further into a hole that appears to get deeper with time (albeit, some signs of temperance in violence in Iraq cannot be denied).
Although famous, British journalist Robert Fisk is unfamiliar to me. His article in the "Independent" is a sober recasting any thought that more troops will make a difference in Afghanistan. It is unclear what is in order at this point since Pakistan is now deteriorating with their nuclear armaments in question.
What is clear is that we have an unmitigated disaster that could become even worse.
I will have to read more by Robert Fisk who seems to be extraordinarily knowledgeable and thoughtful.
Although famous, British journalist Robert Fisk is unfamiliar to me. His article in the "Independent" is a sober recasting any thought that more troops will make a difference in Afghanistan. It is unclear what is in order at this point since Pakistan is now deteriorating with their nuclear armaments in question.
What is clear is that we have an unmitigated disaster that could become even worse.
I will have to read more by Robert Fisk who seems to be extraordinarily knowledgeable and thoughtful.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Strange Happenings!
Events occur and one wonders what it was like to be present.
My older son started work at a New York law firm on 9/10/2001. On day 2 during the week of orientation, all routine was discombobulated with the destruction of the Twin Towers. His building shaked and people fled through Wall Street trying to make sense of what was occurring.
My younger son started work as a summer associate in a New York firm last year. And he walks into the subprime disaster of Bear Sterns! What an education received!
And, now he starts work as an attorney at the same firm on 2 September only to find Wall Street going under the following weekend!
Participating in historic events must be intoxicating (without dwelling on the tragedies involved).
My older son started work at a New York law firm on 9/10/2001. On day 2 during the week of orientation, all routine was discombobulated with the destruction of the Twin Towers. His building shaked and people fled through Wall Street trying to make sense of what was occurring.
My younger son started work as a summer associate in a New York firm last year. And he walks into the subprime disaster of Bear Sterns! What an education received!
And, now he starts work as an attorney at the same firm on 2 September only to find Wall Street going under the following weekend!
Participating in historic events must be intoxicating (without dwelling on the tragedies involved).
Election: A Story of Motivation!
It is becoming clear that this election will not be motivated by anger at the eight years of Bush. Surprising as it is to me, many people are capable to denying this history by focusing on any one of a plethora of items surfaced by mass media to capture the imagination of people.
It is incredible to think that our history of free education (through high school) and the availability of college to so many has not compensated for what motivates people. It seems that people do not think through issues in order to be motivated to vote against their self-interests as well as the well-being of the nation.
If there has ever been a time when universal health insurance could be legislated, it seemed that this was the time. Virtually alone among developed nations, we have persisted in employer-based health insurance in spite of its ineffectiveness in covering the population and its intrusion into our economic well-being. If we could get out from under employer-based insurance, our products would be more competitive and our citizens would be more secure in knowing their health care needs would be addressed. And yet, we may end up with McCain whose program would only make matters worse by coming up with a system of tax credits to offset employer contributions that would be taxed.
You would think that five long years in Afghanistan and Iraq would have easily determined that the people would want a more thoughtful President whose thinking would maximize the opportunities to avoid warfare. And yet, McCain may be elected to lead us into a disastrous confrontation with Iran. As it is, we have severe problems in Afghanistan and Iraq is surely a nation struggling to accept ethnic diversity. And to think that we could compound our problems by destroying Iran's nuclear program is preposterous.
And now we have a melt-down of Wall Street resulting in unbelievable bailouts by the taxpayers. As one who is a supporter of regulations (cf. Robert Kuttner's various writings), it is not surprising that we have such a disaster. It is a problem not only in itself, but it compounds our long-standing international debt that has been piling up year after year, making us equivalent to virtually a failed nation. We are totally dependent on other nations to keep us afloat. And to think that our nation would elect McCain who is against regulations, until the a "crisis" appears, is ludicrous.
After eight years of a person who acts by virtue of his "gut" (cf. Woodward's books), we now have a chance to elect another person who temperament is far from the model he likes to image for himself. Whether it is views toward Iran, or his understanding of our economy being "fundamentally sound", or his "firing" of SEC Chairman (as though such a precipitous action is justified or reasonable), McCain acts precipitously. He is not a person given to thinking through problems; he is a person who reacts moralistically to crises as they emerge.
I wish that Obama would be more energetic (even if I cherish his thoughtful presentations) and would like to see him capture his thoughts more precisely (even if I could not imagine how such complex realities can be verbalized by sound bites). I wish that there was a caption that would motivate people to rise above whatever is motivating them to think of voting for McCain. But, wishing remains wishing! Reality will be determined by the voters who appear to be on a road that will continue the disaster of that last eight years.
It is incredible to think that our history of free education (through high school) and the availability of college to so many has not compensated for what motivates people. It seems that people do not think through issues in order to be motivated to vote against their self-interests as well as the well-being of the nation.
If there has ever been a time when universal health insurance could be legislated, it seemed that this was the time. Virtually alone among developed nations, we have persisted in employer-based health insurance in spite of its ineffectiveness in covering the population and its intrusion into our economic well-being. If we could get out from under employer-based insurance, our products would be more competitive and our citizens would be more secure in knowing their health care needs would be addressed. And yet, we may end up with McCain whose program would only make matters worse by coming up with a system of tax credits to offset employer contributions that would be taxed.
You would think that five long years in Afghanistan and Iraq would have easily determined that the people would want a more thoughtful President whose thinking would maximize the opportunities to avoid warfare. And yet, McCain may be elected to lead us into a disastrous confrontation with Iran. As it is, we have severe problems in Afghanistan and Iraq is surely a nation struggling to accept ethnic diversity. And to think that we could compound our problems by destroying Iran's nuclear program is preposterous.
And now we have a melt-down of Wall Street resulting in unbelievable bailouts by the taxpayers. As one who is a supporter of regulations (cf. Robert Kuttner's various writings), it is not surprising that we have such a disaster. It is a problem not only in itself, but it compounds our long-standing international debt that has been piling up year after year, making us equivalent to virtually a failed nation. We are totally dependent on other nations to keep us afloat. And to think that our nation would elect McCain who is against regulations, until the a "crisis" appears, is ludicrous.
After eight years of a person who acts by virtue of his "gut" (cf. Woodward's books), we now have a chance to elect another person who temperament is far from the model he likes to image for himself. Whether it is views toward Iran, or his understanding of our economy being "fundamentally sound", or his "firing" of SEC Chairman (as though such a precipitous action is justified or reasonable), McCain acts precipitously. He is not a person given to thinking through problems; he is a person who reacts moralistically to crises as they emerge.
I wish that Obama would be more energetic (even if I cherish his thoughtful presentations) and would like to see him capture his thoughts more precisely (even if I could not imagine how such complex realities can be verbalized by sound bites). I wish that there was a caption that would motivate people to rise above whatever is motivating them to think of voting for McCain. But, wishing remains wishing! Reality will be determined by the voters who appear to be on a road that will continue the disaster of that last eight years.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Perspectives!
While everyone may recognize that there has been a change in how the two presidential candidates are perceived, especially since the selection of Governor Palin. Somehow or other, McCain's decision does not appear reckless and stupid as much as a sign that "he is his own man". Experience or its lack, long McCain's hallmark criticism of Obama, now seems secondary to his lack of executive roles compared with Palin. These changes are breathtaking.
I wish that I could take credit for the following list of perceptions that have been changed to accommodate Palin, but they are attributed to Mike Molloy.
The ironies of politics in 2008 in the US of A:
* If you're a minority and you're selected for a job over more qualified candidates you're a "token hire."
* If you're a conservative and you're selected for a job over more qualified candidates you're a "game changer."
* Black teen pregnancies? A "crisis" in black America .
* White teen pregnancies? A "blessed event."
* If you grow up in Hawaii you're "exotic."
* Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you're the quintessential "American story."
* Similarly, if you name you kid Barack you're "unpatriotic."
* Name your kid Track, you're "colorful."
* If you're a Democrat and you make a VP pick without fully vetting the individual you're "reckless."
* A Republican who doesn't fully vet is a "maverick."
* If you spend 3 years as a community organizer growing your organization from a staff of 1 to 13 and your budget from $70,000 to $400,000, then become the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new African American voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law
professor, then spend nearly 8 more years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, becoming chairman of the state Senate's Health and Human Services committee, then spend nearly 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of nearly 13 million people, sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran's Affairs committees, you are woefully inexperienced.
* If you spend 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, then spend 20 months as the governor of a state with 650,000 people, then you've got the most executive experience of anyone on either ticket, are the Commander in Chief of the Alaska military and are well qualified to lead the nation should you be called upon to do so because your state is the closest state to Russia.
* If you are a Democratic male candidate who is popular with millions of people you are an "arrogant celebrity."
* If you are a popular Republican female candidate you are "energizing the base."
* If you are a younger male candidate who thinks for himself and makes his own decisions you are "presumptuous."
* If you are an older male candidate who makes last minute decisions you refuse to explain, you are a "shoot from the hip" maverick.
* If you are a candidate with a Harvard law degree you are "an elitist-out of touch" with the real America
* if you are a legacy (dad and granddad were admirals) graduate of Annapolis , with multiple disciplinary infractions you are a hero.
* If you manage a multi-million dollar nationwide campaign, you are an "empty suit."
* If you are a part time mayor of a town of 7000 people, you are an "experienced executive."
* If you go to a south side Chicago church, your beliefs are "extremist."
* If you believe in creationism and don't believe global warming is man made, you are "strongly principled."
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a Christian.
* If you have been married to the same woman with whom you've been wed to for 19 years and raising 2 beautiful daughters with, you're "risky."
* If you're a black single mother of 4 who waits for 22 hours after her water breaks to seek medical attention, you're an irresponsible parent, endangering the life of your unborn child.
* But if you're a white married mother who waits 22 hours, you're spunky.
* If you're a 13-year-old Chelsea Clinton, the right-wing press calls you "First dog."
* If you're a 17-year old pregnant unwed daughter of a Republican, the right-wing press calls you "beautiful" and "courageous."
* If you kill an endangered species, you're an excellent hunter.
* If you have an abortion, you're a murderer (forget about if it happened while being raped.)
* If you teach abstinence only in sex education, you get teen parents.
* If you teach responsible age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
I wish that I could take credit for the following list of perceptions that have been changed to accommodate Palin, but they are attributed to Mike Molloy.
The ironies of politics in 2008 in the US of A:
* If you're a minority and you're selected for a job over more qualified candidates you're a "token hire."
* If you're a conservative and you're selected for a job over more qualified candidates you're a "game changer."
* Black teen pregnancies? A "crisis" in black America .
* White teen pregnancies? A "blessed event."
* If you grow up in Hawaii you're "exotic."
* Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you're the quintessential "American story."
* Similarly, if you name you kid Barack you're "unpatriotic."
* Name your kid Track, you're "colorful."
* If you're a Democrat and you make a VP pick without fully vetting the individual you're "reckless."
* A Republican who doesn't fully vet is a "maverick."
* If you spend 3 years as a community organizer growing your organization from a staff of 1 to 13 and your budget from $70,000 to $400,000, then become the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new African American voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law
professor, then spend nearly 8 more years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, becoming chairman of the state Senate's Health and Human Services committee, then spend nearly 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of nearly 13 million people, sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran's Affairs committees, you are woefully inexperienced.
* If you spend 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, then spend 20 months as the governor of a state with 650,000 people, then you've got the most executive experience of anyone on either ticket, are the Commander in Chief of the Alaska military and are well qualified to lead the nation should you be called upon to do so because your state is the closest state to Russia.
* If you are a Democratic male candidate who is popular with millions of people you are an "arrogant celebrity."
* If you are a popular Republican female candidate you are "energizing the base."
* If you are a younger male candidate who thinks for himself and makes his own decisions you are "presumptuous."
* If you are an older male candidate who makes last minute decisions you refuse to explain, you are a "shoot from the hip" maverick.
* If you are a candidate with a Harvard law degree you are "an elitist-out of touch" with the real America
* if you are a legacy (dad and granddad were admirals) graduate of Annapolis , with multiple disciplinary infractions you are a hero.
* If you manage a multi-million dollar nationwide campaign, you are an "empty suit."
* If you are a part time mayor of a town of 7000 people, you are an "experienced executive."
* If you go to a south side Chicago church, your beliefs are "extremist."
* If you believe in creationism and don't believe global warming is man made, you are "strongly principled."
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a Christian.
* If you have been married to the same woman with whom you've been wed to for 19 years and raising 2 beautiful daughters with, you're "risky."
* If you're a black single mother of 4 who waits for 22 hours after her water breaks to seek medical attention, you're an irresponsible parent, endangering the life of your unborn child.
* But if you're a white married mother who waits 22 hours, you're spunky.
* If you're a 13-year-old Chelsea Clinton, the right-wing press calls you "First dog."
* If you're a 17-year old pregnant unwed daughter of a Republican, the right-wing press calls you "beautiful" and "courageous."
* If you kill an endangered species, you're an excellent hunter.
* If you have an abortion, you're a murderer (forget about if it happened while being raped.)
* If you teach abstinence only in sex education, you get teen parents.
* If you teach responsible age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Sober Moment!
My birthday is now eclipsed by the tragedy of 9/11, seven years ago. My older son's second day of work at a New York law firm was rocked literally by the disaster of the Twin Towers. Four planes were turned into kamikaze planes, now under the aegis of terrorists.
No one will ever know what our world would have been like under George W. if there was no 9/11. What we know is that the violence of 9/11 unleashed the irresponsible set of actions that have sent our nation into a new orbit that is perilously close to being out of control. Roger Cohen takes the liberty to cast a biblical spin on the cascading events of the last seven years.
From any vantage point, our nation is worse off. We are far from being safe. The chilling reportreport by security specialistsconfirms how inadequate our nation is prepared to prevent a disaster that would even worse than 9/11. We are no longer a role model within the international community. We not only do not lead, we resist following the leadership of others who want to deal with global warming and a more measured approach to international conflicts. And, we are now being burdened by a collapsed (collapsing?) economy whose hopes rest with the investments of other nations.
What a mess!
And to now witness the possibility that our nation will be led by someone like John McCain and Sarah Pahlin. Not only will our situation not be better, we can now fear that we will be alerted that our bombs have destroyed Iran's nuclear sites which will unwind whatever strength is left to our military capability.
To think that our nation will elect such leaders is bewildering. While I have not given up hope, I can appreciate what my adult son repeated often that I don't understand how the majority of the American public thinks. It looks like I don't and I am not sure how I will react to another Republican victory. I will be angry that the Democrats did not do what was necessary to win. And yet, I am not sure that what was necessary is consistent with either the values of Obama or myself. Apparently, you have to stop talking about issues and distort people beyond recognition. It does not matter whether there is any truth in what was said as long as it feeds a negative perception of the opponent.
Strangely enough, one virtue of being older is that I will be spared the drastic consequences of the eight years of Bush and the possible years of a McCain administration. I will never live that long and secondly, the domestic issues facing our nation, e.g., income inequality, inadequate health care for many, poor education for urban young people, will not impact me personally. I am one of those that is blessed. I just want others to share my state of affairs: education, health care, adequate income. It may be remain a dream for this nation.
No one will ever know what our world would have been like under George W. if there was no 9/11. What we know is that the violence of 9/11 unleashed the irresponsible set of actions that have sent our nation into a new orbit that is perilously close to being out of control. Roger Cohen takes the liberty to cast a biblical spin on the cascading events of the last seven years.
From any vantage point, our nation is worse off. We are far from being safe. The chilling reportreport by security specialistsconfirms how inadequate our nation is prepared to prevent a disaster that would even worse than 9/11. We are no longer a role model within the international community. We not only do not lead, we resist following the leadership of others who want to deal with global warming and a more measured approach to international conflicts. And, we are now being burdened by a collapsed (collapsing?) economy whose hopes rest with the investments of other nations.
What a mess!
And to now witness the possibility that our nation will be led by someone like John McCain and Sarah Pahlin. Not only will our situation not be better, we can now fear that we will be alerted that our bombs have destroyed Iran's nuclear sites which will unwind whatever strength is left to our military capability.
To think that our nation will elect such leaders is bewildering. While I have not given up hope, I can appreciate what my adult son repeated often that I don't understand how the majority of the American public thinks. It looks like I don't and I am not sure how I will react to another Republican victory. I will be angry that the Democrats did not do what was necessary to win. And yet, I am not sure that what was necessary is consistent with either the values of Obama or myself. Apparently, you have to stop talking about issues and distort people beyond recognition. It does not matter whether there is any truth in what was said as long as it feeds a negative perception of the opponent.
Strangely enough, one virtue of being older is that I will be spared the drastic consequences of the eight years of Bush and the possible years of a McCain administration. I will never live that long and secondly, the domestic issues facing our nation, e.g., income inequality, inadequate health care for many, poor education for urban young people, will not impact me personally. I am one of those that is blessed. I just want others to share my state of affairs: education, health care, adequate income. It may be remain a dream for this nation.
Return to the Routine!
Routine can be boring or it can be comforting. The latter is true in this case. After a wonderful summer with family and grandchildren, life is returning to the routine (for them as well as ourselves). We have had more than our share of wonderful experiences.
We have eaten together, shopped, talked, and saw babies develop in our presence. We had one (and maybe our last) party that brought together over 40 adults and 14 children. Family visited, conversations ebbed and flowed with the rise and fall of the shrieks of little ones.
At the heart of the experience were grandchildren.
There was the party!
And, then, the capture of the 28" stripped bass!
What more could one ever ask of a summer!
We have eaten together, shopped, talked, and saw babies develop in our presence. We had one (and maybe our last) party that brought together over 40 adults and 14 children. Family visited, conversations ebbed and flowed with the rise and fall of the shrieks of little ones.
At the heart of the experience were grandchildren.
There was the party!
And, then, the capture of the 28" stripped bass!
What more could one ever ask of a summer!
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