My Prediction of the Outcomes of the Primaries

A blog demands taking a plunge to identify with others who want to predict the outcome of the primary elections. It would be fantasy to expect more than the futile efforts of others to know how the unpredictable turns out in reality. However, a blogger must enter the fray!

First, I remain a strong supporter of Obama. In fact, his performance has only increased my support. The fact that he may not overwhelm his opponents does not bother me. His democratic opponents are all good. He has been steady, he has explained well his reasoning for running for president (I do think that there is an urgency for a change in how our president functions) and he has clarified what makes him unique (in addition to his color).

Only because of the strength of the media, money, and her campaign (she has done well in staying close to the “script”, avoided most pitfalls, and has a large number of volunteers that provide great manpower to ensure turnout), I expect Clinton to be the ultimate winner. However, if she did not meet expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire, then the outcome of South Carolina’s primary will become critical. In short, she has to beat her opponents convincingly by 19 January in order to enter the 5 February primaries with optimism of winning.

While I cannot believe that any Republican could be elected in November, the candidates have done well to shatter the perceived strengths of all, except McCain. I do think that he has survived the process with his candidacy still viable. His endorsements by leading news outlets in Iowa and New Hampshire are helpful.

If the outcome is as I expect, I will vote for Clinton but will do so with less than enthusiasm I anticipated. I find her very calculating (as was her husband) which may in long run be good since it tends to identify with the proverbial middle ground. However, in this mess, I doubt that it will be enough to make the necessary changes in our domestic and international policies. I tremble with the thought that the former President will be in the White House. I cannot image his being a mere advisor. I cannot image his not creating problems for Hillary because he will not be capable to withstand saying what he thinks. And what he thinks will not be just another view of a politician. And, unfortunately, I cannot expect that his personal behavior will not emerge as a factor in Hillary’s administration. And finally, I hate the thought that, between 1988 and possibly 2016, we will have two families serving as President.