Wednesday, March 18, 2009

"The Gamble" by Thomas E. Ricks

This author is great! Following "Fiasco", "The Gamble" is another insightful coverage of the Iraq War. In this case, he zoned in on the surge and how the policy developed. I doubt that anyone is unaware of the roles of Generals Patraeus and Odierno, but it may be new information that the latter person had more to do with the surge policy being adopted than commonly known. Secondly, it was most interesting to note the number of highly educated officers in the Army, i.e., those with doctorates, and the number who were females.

In general, Patraeus and Odierno prevailed against most of the military leaders and politicians to come up with the surge with the strategy to achieve stability and some level of reconciliation. Dreams of a democracy were discarded as well as ideas that there would be no violence.

However, the author's conclusion is far from happy. There are few reasons to think that stability and reconciliation will occur. Civil War may occur when US forces leave. Dictatorship with harsh and cruel reprisals, e.g., those of the infamous Sadam Hussein are quite possible. US forces remaining in Iraq for over a decade is not impossible, albeit, a reduction in force UNLESS we have to return because of outright internal war that threatens the entire MidEast.

In short, the book is most interesting to see how the military was able to change its approach even if the increased stability does not signify "victory".

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