The Future of the Middle East

One of my assets of writing a blog is that it affords an opportunity to identify with some views even when there is no reason to think that they will not change. How could anyone say anything about the future of the Middle East without recognizing the ambiguity of the situation?

At any rate, here goes.

First, I think that it is relevant to reflect on the consequences of colonialism. The powers of yesterday who authorized who would control what, were victims of grandiose delusions. The wreckage resulting from colonialism is noted in virtually all places with possibly a few exceptions, e.g., India. Exploitation of people and resources has been the rule of the powerful. The consequences have been tragic, demonstrated clearly in the assignment of Middle East countries to European powers. No nation in the Middle East has become better because of their assigned overseer.

Second, Islam is like all religions. It is inherently intolerant. Only with the development of national wealth does religion become moderated. Extreme or literal interpretations of source books, e.g., bible, Koran, become reinterpreted so that they can become acceptable to a more "advanced" population.

Having acknowledged this, it is clear that the present level of development is sufficiently low and, therefore, Islam does represent a potential source of hostile actions. I cannot envision a more "democratic" Middle East in the near future that will not also be a source of major concern to their peoples and other nations. It is hard to believe that all these nations will transition from autocratic rule for 40 years to a democratic form of government sanctioned by the majority. There is a question whether the majority in any given state would actually vote for a genuine form of democratic government composed of various parties. Some may actually vote for a government controlled by Islamic law in its more rigid forms with all of prejudices characterized by their own internal disputes among the various sects. At this moment, there are reasons to doubt whether any of the nations now undergoing revolution will actually satisfy the aspirations of the young people who led these revolts.

Given that I would rule out any form of occupation that would "control" the peoples of any nation as being counterproductive, I foresee a need to tolerate great ambiguity and even open hostility against the West and the United States, in particular. At the same time, I think that we should be prepared to exercise police action against anyone who violates international law, as we should have done after the 9/11 tragedy. We should have gone after the Al Qaeda, captured those who were in control of the plans etc. and prosecuted them accordingly. We should never have got into a military invasion. It never works.