Expert Opinion

I was intrigued by Nicholas Kristof's column today reflecting that expert opinion on average was no better than chance and the more "expert" the source, the more apt that the opinion ultimately was wrong.

It made me think about myself who always has an opinion and is always reading the opinions of others. I admit quite frequently that i was wrong about this or that opinion I had. Sometimes, my opinion (opinion relates to any held view, including belief) is terribly wrong, e.g., I would say that my history of advocating religion in general and Catholicism in particular to be a great example. However, there are times when I appear to be right. For example, I can recall my views that our economy had a lot of problems and I was worried about the future. To show that I was sensitive to my history of erroneous opinions, I never had to confidence to say, "let's move the money!"

So, one needs to be cautious about expert opinions and yet, we have to adopt some view. If you cannot trust the expert and you know that you are in error more often than not, what can you do?

It all gets back to existentialism! The angst of life is that there is anxiety associated with every decision because there is no way to avoid the inherent dilemma that we don't know the real answer to anything dealing with future!!